TRENDS IN AMERICAN LIVING STANDARDS AND INEQUALITY, 1959–2007

We analyze the trends from 1959 to 2007 using an expanded measure of income called the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well‐Being (LIMEW). LIMEW is different in scope from the official U.S. Census Bureau measure of gross money income (MI) in that our measure includes non‐cash transfers, public consumption, imputed income from wealth, and household production and nets out personal taxes. While the annual growth rates of median LIMEW and MI are very close over the whole period (0.67 and 0.63 percent), median LIMEW grew much faster than median MI after 1982 and much slower before. The Gini coefficient of MI is uniformly higher than that of LIMEW but both show about the same change from 1959 to 2007. Decomposition analysis shows that changes in inequality are driven to a large extent by non‐home wealth in LIMEW and earnings in MI. While the racial gap in MI declined somewhat over the 1990s and 2000s, the racial gap in LIMEW actually widened a bit. Over the same years, while there was little change in the gap in MI between the elderly and non‐elderly, the LIMEW of the elderly actually overtook that of the non‐elderly.     

Accounting-Based Stock Price Anomalies: Separating Market Inefficiencies from Risk*

Abstract. We examine six accounting-based stock price anomalies using two sets of tests to determine the extent to which the anomalies (1) represent market mispricing or (2) reflect premia for unidentified risks. Market mispricing is indicated if the anomalous returns are concentrated around subsequent earnings announcements in patterns suggesting that the earnings information causes traders to re-examine their prior (incorrect) beliefs. Mispricing is also indicated if anomalous returns on zero-investment portfolios are positive, period after period. Our results indicate that an anomaly based on earnings momentum probably reflects market mispricing, but that two value-glamour anomalies (based on the book-market ratio and the earnings-price ratio), and two anomalies based on computerized fundamental analyses (from Ou and Penman 1989 and Holthausen and Larcker 1992) are more likely to reflect risk premia than indicated by prior research. Evidence on a sixth anomaly, based on price momentum, is mixed.     

NEGOTIATING A RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ROLE OF BIOLOGICAL EMISSIONS

Researchers have attributed 15 percent of global methane releases to emissions of methane from enteric fermentation in animals (wild and domestic). Bovines contribute approximately two-thirds of this amount. Since methane is a potent greenhouse gas, this source frequently is a target for emission reductions. However, the existing literature overstates the importance of bovine methane as a greenhouse gas by as much as 800 percent. Estimates to date have focused solely on gas emissions, ignoring the biological and chemical cycling that removes carbon from the atmosphere. The analysis presented here demonstrates the importance of these cycles in assessing the overall greenhouse effect of biological methane sources such as rice production, termites, and bovine animals. Ignoring this cycling results in overemphasizing the role of developing countries' total contributions to climate change. In economic terms, the analysis shows that reducing CO2 emissions from energy use in industrialized countries is more efficient than reducing net greenhouse methane from animal sources.     

Autonomy and Political Strategy: Building the Other Superpower

Recently, from 21–25 October 2004, I participated in the Norway Social Forum (NSF). It was the most successful regional social forum that I have attended. The forum expressed what I call an autonomist electoral politics. Such a politics combines short‐term electoral tactics with long‐term social movement autonomy. Autonomist electoral politics outlines the direction that forthcoming local, regional and national forums should take. I use the example of the NSF to respond to Peter Marcuse’s article on social forums and social movements. Le Forum social norvégien (FSN) s’est tenu du 21 au 25 octobre 2004, et ce fut le forum social régional le plus réussi auquel j’ai participé. Il a exprimé ce que j’appelle une politique électorale autonomiste. Une telle politique allie des tactiques électorales à court terme et une autonomie des mouvements sociaux à long terme. Elle définit l’orientation que devrait prendre les forums locaux, régionaux et nationaux à venir. J’utilise ici l’exemple du Forum social norvégien pour répondre à l’article de Peter Marcuse sur les forums et mouvements sociaux.     

OIL SPILL REDUCTION AND COSTS OF SHIP DESIGN REGULATION

The 1990 Oil Pollution Act mandates double hulls for new ocean-going tankers unless the U.S. Coast Guard can find superior designs to reduce oil spill risks. This paper, based on a 1991 National Research Council (NRC) study of alternative tanker designs, examines policy implications of prescribing construction standards. Alternative construction designs for tankers, such as that of the Exxon Valdez, have markedly differing effects both on oil transport costs and on the risks of future oil spills. Annual costs of shipping oil to the United States would rise by anywhere from $462 million to $2,047 billion, depending on which of five plausible designs are selected. The chief objective of such designs is to reduce the outflow of oil occurring during groundings and collisions. Over the past decade, an average of about 7,500 tons have spilled annually from these causes in U.S. waters—representing roughly 20 percent of transportation-related maritime oil pollution in 1990. NRC-sponsored simulation research indicates that the various designs likely would prevent 2,600–5,600 tons from being spilled in a typical year. The paper presents cost-effectiveness comparisons of the alternatives, contrasting these with available information on societal benefits per ton of oil spill avoided. Costs appear substantial relative to benefits, and lawmakers' emphasis on design standards deflects attention from alternative risk reduction strategies—e.g., operation and maintenance measures—that warrant equal attention.     

WAGE DETERMINATION UNDER NON-LINEAR TAXES: ESTIMATION AND AN APPLICATION TO PANEL DATA

This paper studies wage determination under piecewise lineartaxes in a unionised labour market. The purposes of the paperare to model how piecewise linear taxation affects the choiceset of the union, and to take this information into accountin the estimation. The empirical application is based on paneldata. Piecewise linear taxes necessitates formal assumptionsabout the sources of randomness, and we find that both unobservedheterogeneity and measurement errors in the wage rate are importantto consider in the estimation. We also find that taxes are likelyto have a non-negligible impact on the (pre-tax) wage rate.